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What is the stock market telling us about the November election?
Despite the fact that America currently has over 38 million unemployed workers, the market is down 8.5% this year, having gone up 32% since the late March low. Why is the stock market going up while our economy teeters on the edge of a Great Depression?
There are several factors currently at work in the market with the most obvious being the extraordinary intervention by our leaders in Washington. Congress has authorized mind-boggling amounts of stimulus funds while the Fed has signaled that it is ready to purchase nearly anything and mostly everything. Even more spending and buying are sure to follow. This money flood is so massive that undoubtedly there are mind-boggling sums going into equities.
Washington’s interventions in the markets has had a calming effect on prices and volatility, allowing investors to begin to look ahead to November, where it seems that President Trump is ever more likely to win re-election. There are several key reasons why more and more voters are beginning to lean toward Trump. Prior to the Pandemic Lockdown, America was enjoying a tremendous economy, which many voters attributed to Trump’s pro-growth policies, such as cutting taxes and reducing regulations. As bad as current economic conditions are now, people are beginning to hope that perhaps the worst has passed. The economy is starting to be perceived as poised to improve rather than worsen, certainly a trend that greatly favors Trump.
Besides the hope for an improving economy, what has been happening to the Biden campaign is a pandemic of self-destruction. There are several growing scandals surrounding the Biden campaign that are unlikely to go away before November. Tara Reade’s claim of sexual abuse by then-senator Biden seems to have some credibility, and for those invested in the MeToo movement, the longer Ms. Reade’s claims are ignored by Hollywood, the leftist media, and the Democrats, the worse it looks for Biden. The cognitive decline Biden is exhibiting is getting worse, and similar to the Reade situation, the longer it goes on, the more voters will notice and turn away. Recently, Biden insulted black voters when he said, “I tell you, if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.” Finally, there is the growing scandal of the Mike Flynn case, which continues to shine a spotlight on how the DOJ, the CIA, and the FBI attempted to take down the Trump presidency with the Russian Hoax and Mueller investigation. Joe Biden is tied to the mast of this unfolding scandal, as all of it was birthed by the supposedly “scandal-free” Obama administration.
While the COVID-19 pandemic is largely a black swan event, Trump overall did a good job in handling the crisis, especially when compared to the utter insanity exhibited by the Democratic governors of New York and Michigan, Andrew Cuomo and Gretchen Whitmer, respectively. Trump’s reasoned approach in leading America through the Pandemic Lockdown is far more attractive to Americans than the Hitlerian policies promulgated by Cuomo and Whitmer, policies that have significantly increased the harmful effects of the lockdown in the states those two politicians govern. Besides Trump’s measured response, we also have the tremendous success Governor DeSantis has achieved in handling the pandemic in Florida, which has a COVID-19 mortality rate 90% less than New York even though Florida has a larger population and a greater number of residents living in nursing homes. Clearly, the body of evidence showing Republicans to be better at managing a crisis grows by the day.
Most of the 73% of Americans who live outside urban areas have seen their livelihoods, their careers, and their local economies devastated because their states chose to design their lockdown policies in response to the high death rates caused by COVID-19 in places like New York City and northern N.J. Since this is the first pandemic most Americans have ever seen, the various governors and local leaders were initially given the benefit of the doubt with their choice of lockdown policies. But now voters are realizing that a one-size-lockdown for my entire state is an unforced error that is crushing families, businesses, and communities. Lockdown policies should be far more local in nature, crafted for a community rather than an entire state or group of states. And, instead of a careful and measured easing of lockdown restrictions, we see unscientific and draconian lockdowns being extended by the liberal Democratic governors.
Evidently, these governors love their lockdowns more than their constituents. As more Republican governors successfully open up their states, enabling people to go back to work and to begin rebuilding their lives, the stale and hollow excuses the Democratic governors are offering to explain their continued lockdowns will increasingly be met with jeers and outright rejection in the form of civil disobedience. When a 77-year-old barber begins defying a statewide lockdown in Michigan, it’s a clear signal (not yet received by Governor Whitmer) that something is seriously wrong and must be changed.
Voters are noticing that they have power-hungry Democratic leaders who don’t seem to care that their lockdown policies are destroying the lives of millions. As voters’ awareness of the governors’ malfeasance grows, anger will grow among the voters, who will hardly be able to wait until November to express themselves at the polls.
Democrats would still have a fighting chance in November to hold the House and perhaps even gain the Senate if they would just let go of the lockdowns. But they can’t, and they won’t.
The Democrats are heading for an Election Day nightmare on the national and local levels. I wonder if they understand that the majority of Democratic voters that they are now re-manufacturing into Republican voters will likely never return.